Here is my subjective take on the three most significant events and trends that affected Russia in September.
1. Ukraine ceasefire. Signed on September 5, the ceasefire demonstrated that both Russia (and the pro-Russian rebels) and Ukraine were willing to to get out of a deadlock. The ceasefire was presented to the public in the form of reconciled proposals by Putin and Poroshenko, with OSCE acting as mediator. Many observers were skeptical of the possibility of a long-term ceasefire but it has lasted until now. Both sides are still fighting but with lower intensity, and political solutions are being sought. So the ceasefire was the first step towards peace in Ukraine.
2. Economic troubles. On September 12, the EU announced a new package of sanctions against Russia – the most serious one so far. The sanctions targeted Russia’s economic heavyweights in the energy, banking, and defense sectors as well as 24 representatives of the Russian elite. Russia chose not to impose counter-sanctions. In addition, oil prices continued to drop and are now hovering around $90. This prompted Russia’s MinFin to conclude this may be a long-term trend that will impact Russia’s budget negatively; to cover the deficit the government will have to tap into the reserve funds. Finally, responding to these and other shocks, the ruble continued to fall; budget losses will be partially compensated by revenues from exports but given that Russia imports most of its consumer goods weakened currency will aggravate the inflation problem. All of this has undoubtedly contributed to Russia exibiting a less reckless behaviour in the Ukraine conflict.
3. Khodorkovsky. In September, Mikhail Khodorkovsky finally emerged as a politician and as someone who has presidential ambitions. I really like how he justified his renewed interest in politics by stating that when Putin’s era is over (which, according to him, may happen at any point – tomorrow or in five years), the country will need to be ready to move on. So he’s leading a progressive movement, Open Russia, that will help ensure a smooth transition. For the first time in years, the Russian opposition movement may obtain a leader with credentials and authority who is not afraid to position himself as an alternative to Putin. And who knows, maybe one day he will become our President.
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