Ukraine Administrative divisions, 1993, from Utexas.edu
In spite of the hopes for a peaceful resolution to the war in Eastern Ukraine, it is highly unlikely. And it’s not just that recent events point in that direction. Sure, the bloody battle for Donetsk airport, the shelling of Mariupol, the civilian deaths and the statements by Head of DNR Zakharchenko, President Putin and President Poroshenko indicate that the situation is getting out of control. Recently Ukraine’s parliament, Verkhovna Rada, approved a statement that calls Russia an “aggressor state”; Ukraine will appeal to the international community for military assistance. These developments reflect the parties’ inability to comply with the Minsk Protocol in terms of maintaining ceasefire, drawing a contact line, controlling the border, and addressing the humanitarian situation in Donbas. But the underlying problem, question number one, is what happens to Novorossiya in long-term. And if we try to answer this question we’ll see that a peaceful solution won’t work both for the separatists and their supporters in Moscow, and for Ukraine.
I’ll start with the separatists. The need for Novorossiya to expand becomes obvious if one looks at the map of Ukraine (above). Right now, Novorossiya only controls parts of Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts. Not only does it not control the whole of both oblasts, but it also has no power over other strategically important regions: Kharkivska, Zaporizka, Khersonska, Odeska and other oblasts. To reach their goal of “liberating the Russians of Ukraine” and to create a sustainable “Russian Republic” in the east of Ukraine, the separatists simply must take control over those territories. Now or in long-term. Here are three reasons why this must be done:
First, Crimea’s physical separation from Russia is a serious problem for Putin. Crimea is only connected to Russia via a ferry line. Plans for building a bridge are underway, but that would take several years. Also, a bridge may not be a feasible solution given that Ukraine owns part of the Azov sea and therefore the bridge would have to be agreed on by both countries. Another option being considered is to build a tunnel underneath the Kerch Strait. A Crimea disconnected from Russia prevents the movement of people and goods, makes it difficult for Crimea to mitigate the effect of Western sanctions that are hurting its economy immensely, and to defend Crimea in the case of a possible Ukraine intervention. Crimea’s annexation is only a temporary victory that will likely turn into defeat in a few years if this is not addressed. And addressing this would require controlling at least parts of Zaporizka and Khersonska oblasts.
Second, confined to just two Ukrainian regions, Novorossiya will never become a legitimate political entity and will be forever stuck in uncertainty, like Transnistria. In April 2014, the Washington Post published what it called a map of historic Novorossiya, a province of the Russian Empire. The map is based on Putin’s earlier statement that Novorossiya had included Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson, Mikolayiv, and Odessa. This is misleading, however, as the historic Province of Novorossiya didn’t include Kharkiv (it was part of another province). In any case, at some point all these territories used to be part of the Russian Empire. And today’s Novorossiya patriots and their supporters in Moscow wouldn’t want to confine themselves to just Luhansk and Donetsk. Last September, one of the separatist leaders, Pavel Gubarev, proclaimed that they fought for a “Great Novorossiya from Luhansk to Odessa”. From the separatists’ perspective, any ceasefire is tactical, but the strategic goal remains the same – to reclaim all the predominantly Russian-speaking regions of Ukraine. Zakharchenko recently said there won’t be any new ceasefire attempts.
Third, Russia will never agree to the prospects of Ukraine’s EU or NATO ascension. No matter what Putin says in public, he cannot allow this to happen. Losing Ukraine would be the end of Russia as we know it. Novorossiya is key to keeping Ukraine on the hook.
Putin’s recent statement about Ukraine’s army being a “foreign NATO legion” demonstrates his seriousness about supporting Novorossiya. Putin must increase military assistance to the separatists to help them gain territory and legitimacy. In the words of National-Bolshevik writer Eduard Limonov, “It’s clear that [Russia’s leadership] understands soberly that only a military victory would bring independence and long-desired peace to the Donetsk republics”. That statement may be an exaggeration but I think there is some truth to it. Last year, Russia’s support was crucial to the separatists’ victory in the battle of Illovaysk, and there is significant pressure within Russia for even more support. Recently Putin wrote a letter to Poroshenko asking that a new contact line between the separatists and the Ukrainian army be drawn based on the actual situation (reflecting the territorial gains made by the separatists since last September); Poroshenko refused.
No on to why peace won’t work for Ukraine as well. To understand that, one may recall the story of Russia’s own “Novorossiya” – independent Ichkeria, the Chechen Republic de-facto legitimized in 1996 as a result of the Khasavyurt Accords. The Accords led to a withdrawal of Russian troops from Chechnya, but they didn’t solve any of the problems Russia faced as a result of Chechen separatism. Attacks, kidnappings, and terrorist acts continued. This isn’t surprising, among other things because there were few legitimate economic opportunities in Chechya aside from federal transfers (quite like in today’s Donbas). Finally, things got so bad that in 1999, Russian troops entered Chechnya again and soon Ichkeria ceased to exist. There’s a valuable lesson for Ukraine in this: a peace agreement may work in a short term but the absence of political and economic opportunities in the breakaway territories will force Novorossiya to expand, threatening the very survival of Ukraine. It is a matter of time before Ukraine faces a choice: destroy Novorossiya or disintegrate.
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